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Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Industry: Enjoy Industrial Transfer and New Demands

April 16, 2019

1. The shift in the industrial chain of Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors has created a huge demand for import substitution in the high-end market, especially in the high-end market.

Industrial chain competition: Japanese companies dominate the high-end market:
1. Japanese leading industrial high-end Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor market, NCC, Nichicon and Rubycon occupy the top three in the world, accounting for 53% of the total;
2. Japan is the main producer of high-end electrode foils in the world, and JCC and KDK occupy the top two in the world;
3, Japan's electronic aluminum foil technology and production are also among the world's forefront, especially in high-voltage electronic aluminum foil, Japan is the world's largest production of high-purity aluminum, segregation of aluminum technology, the most advanced countries;
4. Japan's electrolytic paper and capacitor chemicals are globally leading in technology and output. NKK holds over 60% of global electrolytic paper market share and 50% of China's market share. Fushan Pharmaceuticals holds 20% of global capacitor chemical market share.

Industry Chain Development Trends: Domestic conditions for industrial transfer:
1. The downstream manufacture of aluminum electrolytic capacitors is transferred to mainland China to drive the localization of the aluminum Electrolytic capacitor industry;
2. China's cost advantages in electricity, labor, and resources, as well as the continued appreciation of the yen, have accelerated the transfer of the global aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor industry to China;
3. Japan’s earthquake will accelerate the transfer of aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry, Japan’s power shortage and nuclear radiation impact will be difficult to eliminate in the short term, and downstream manufacturers have accelerated the certification of domestic companies in China.
Domestic status of the industry chain: Import substitution in the high-end market:
1. Domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitors achieve import substitution, and the trade deficit shows a declining trend. Jianghai (002484) has become one of the world's leading suppliers of high-end aluminum electrolytic capacitors.
2. China has been able to produce high-end corrosion foils and chemical foils, ending long-term import dependence, and East Sunlight Aluminum (600673) and Jianghai have achieved world-class chemical foil forming technology.
3. The development of domestic electronics industry has promoted the localization of domestic electronic aluminum foil and high-purity aluminum;
4. China's electrolytic paper and capacitor chemicals represented by Kane (002012) and Xinzhou State (300037) have continuously improved their technology and scale, becoming major domestic suppliers, and the Japanese manufacturers’ market share has gradually declined.

Second, the domestic energy-saving frequency conversion and new energy industry development has created a large number of new high-end aluminum electrolytic capacitor demand, will form a local prosperity in the high-end market.

The field of high-end aluminum electrolytic capacitors is the focus of future growth in the domestic market:
1. With the upgrading of consumer electronics products and the rapid development of industrial electrolytic capacitors, the development of aluminum electrolytic capacitors in the future will mainly focus on industrial aluminum electrolytic capacitors and high-end consumer aluminum electrolytic capacitors.
2. High-end aluminum electrolytic capacitors have high technical content, strict quality requirements, and high barriers to market access, high profit levels, and competitive conditions are significantly better than low-end markets.
Domestic energy-saving frequency conversion and new energy industry development create a large number of new requirements for high-end aluminum electrolytic capacitors:
1, energy-saving frequency conversion to promote, inverter is an important application of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, the next 10 years, an increase of 20%, the potential market size of 10 billion yuan;
2. After Japan’s earthquake, the development of wind power and photovoltaic will accelerate. Aluminum electrolytic capacitors are important components of modules such as inverters and transformers, which will increase by 38% annually in the next few years. By 2015, the market scale is expected to reach 5.5 billion yuan;
3. The development of domestic electric and hybrid vehicles is expected to bring about 1.5 billion yuan in the electrolytic capacitor market in 2015;
4, "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" China's investment in high-speed rail, rail transportation and smart power grid, is expected to bring about 10 billion aluminum electrolytic capacitor market.

Investment logic and recommended targets are optimistic about the technical leaders in the domestic aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry chain and the pioneers in the high-end market. Jianghai shares and Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888) are recommended, and it is recommended to pay attention to Xinzhou State and Kane shares.

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